Designing optimal Bayes filters for nonlinear non-Gaussian systems is a challenging task. The main difficulties are: 1) representing complex beliefs, 2) handling non-Gaussian noise, and 3) marginalizing past states. To address these challenges, we focus on polynomial systems and propose the Max Entropy Moment Kalman Filter (MEM-KF). To address 1), we represent arbitrary beliefs by a MomentConstrained Max-Entropy Distribution (MED). The MED can asymptotically approximate almost any distribution given an increasing number of moment constraints. To address 2), we model the noise in the process and observation model as MED. To address 3), we propagate the moments through the process model and recover the distribution as MED, thus avoiding symbolic integration, which is generally intractable. All the steps in MEM-KF, including the extraction of a point estimate, can be solved via convex optimization.

Model-free optimization methods typically rely on cost samples gathered by perturbing the current solution estimate along a finite and fixed set of directions. However, at each iteration, only the current cost samples are used, while potentially informative, previously collected samples are discarded. In this work, we challenge this conventional approach by introducing a simple yet effective memory mechanism that maintains an auxiliary vector of iteratively updated cost samples. By leveraging this stored information, our method estimates descent directions through an averaging of all perturbing directions weighted by the auxiliary vector components.

Estimating the geometric median of a dataset is a robust counterpart to mean estimation, and is a fundamental problem in computational geometry.

We study quantum algorithms based on quantum (sub)gradient estimation using noisy function evaluation oracles, and demonstrate the first dimension-independent query complexities (up to poly-logarithmic factors) for zeroth-order convex optimization in both smooth and nonsmooth settings. Interestingly, only using noisy function evaluation oracles, we match the first-order query complexities of classical gradient descent, thereby exhibiting exponential separation between quantum and classical zeroth-order optimization. We then generalize these algorithms to work in non-Euclidean settings by using quantum (sub)gradient estimation to instantiate mirror descent and its variants, including dual averaging and mirror prox. By leveraging a connection between semidefinite programming and eigenvalue optimization, we use our quantum mirror descent method to give a new quantum algorithm for solving semidefinite programs, linear programs, and zero-sum games. We identify a parameter regime in which our zero-sum games algorithm is faster than any existing classical or quantum approach.

Bandit Convex Optimization is a fundamental class of sequential decision-making problems, where the learner selects actions from a continuous domain and observes a loss (but not its gradient) at only one point per round. We study this problem in non-stationary environments, and aim to minimize the regret under three standard measures of non-stationarity: the number of switches S in the comparator sequence, the total variation! of the loss functions, and the path-length P of the comparator sequence. We propose a polynomial-time algorithm, Tilted Exponentially Weighted Average with Sleeping Experts (TEWA-SE), which adapts the sleeping experts framework from online convex optimization to the bandit setting. For strongly convex losses, we prove that TEWA-SE is minimax-optimal with respect to known S and! by establishing matching upper and lower bounds. By equipping TEWA-SE with the Bandit-over-Bandit framework, we extend our analysis to environments with unknown non-stationarity measures. For general convex losses, we introduce a second algorithm, clipped Exploration by Optimization (cExO), based on exponential weights over a discretized action space. While not polynomial-time computable, this method achieves minimax-optimal regret with respect to known S and!, and improves on the best existing bounds with respect to P.

The constrained version of the standard online convex optimization (OCO) framework, called COCO is considered, where on every round, a convex cost function and a convex constraint function are revealed to the learner after it chooses the action for that round. The objective is to simultaneously minimize the static regret and cumulative constraint violation (CCV). An algorithm is proposed that guarantees a static regret of O( T) and a CCV of min{V,O( Tlog T)}, where V depends on the distance between the consecutively revealed constraint sets, the shape of constraint sets, dimension of action space and the diameter of the action space. When constraint sets have additional structure, V = O(1). Compared to the state of the art results, static regret of O( T) and CCV of O( T log T), that were universal, the new result on CCV is instance dependent, which is derived by exploiting the geometric properties of the constraint sets.

Smoothness is known to be crucial for acceleration in offline optimization, and for gradient-variation regret minimization in online learning. Interestingly, these two problems are actually closely connected -- accelerated optimization can be understood through the lens of gradient-variation online learning. In this paper, we investigate online learning with Hölder smooth functions, a general class encompassing both smooth and non-smooth (Lipschitz) functions, and explore its implications for offline optimization.

We study adversarial online learning with hidden-convex losses, i.e., nonconvex losses that become convex after a nonlinear reparameterization. Ghai, Lu and Hazan (2022) proved that, under geometric and smoothness assumptions, online gradient descent (OGD) on such nonconvex losses approximately simulates online mirror descent (OMD) on the underlying convex losses with a suitable regularizer, yielding $\mathcal{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret. They left open whether the optimal $Θ(\sqrt{T})$ regret from online convex optimization can be recovered in this hidden-convex setting. We answer this question affirmatively. More specifically, via a sharper discrete-time algorithmic equivalence argument, we prove that OGD achieves $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret under the same assumptions, matching the optimal worst-case rate for adversarial online convex optimization. We also address another open question of Ghai, Lu and Hazan (2022) by clarifying the geometry required for this algorithmic equivalence. We replace the diagonal-Jacobian sufficient condition with a necessary-and-sufficient Hessian compatibility condition, thereby expanding the class of admissible reparameterizations. We complement our tight regret bound with a lower bound showing that the Hessian compatibility assumption is essential for OGD; when it fails, we construct a smooth reparameterization and an adversarial sequence of hidden-convex losses for which OGD suffers $Ω(T)$ regret. Finally, we extend our analysis to one-point bandit feedback and prove a $\mathcal{O}(T^{3/4})$ expected regret bound for bandit OGD with spherical smoothing, matching its classical rate on convex losses.

We consider Constrained Online Convex Optimization (COCO) with adversarially chosen constraints. At each round, the learner chooses an action before observing the loss and constraint function for that round. The goal is to achieve small static regret against the best point satisfying all constraints while also controlling cumulative constraint violation ($\mathsf{CCV}$). For strongly convex losses, state-of-the-art algorithms achieve $O(\log T)$ regret and $O(\sqrt{T \log T})$ $\mathsf{CCV}.$ The corresponding best-known bounds for convex losses is $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret and $O(\sqrt{T} \log T)$ $\mathsf{CCV}$. In this paper, we give a simple projection-based algorithm that simultaneously achieves $O(\log T)$ regret and $O(\log T)$ $\mathsf{CCV}$ for strongly-convex losses, yielding an exponential improvement in the $\mathsf{CCV}$. For the convex losses, our algorithm improves the $\mathsf{CCV}$ to $O(\sqrt{T})$ while maintaining the optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret. The key to our improvement is a recent geometric result for self-contracted curves, which may be of independent interest.

We study inventory control with decision-dependent censoring, focusing on the censored or repeated newsvendor (R-NV), where each order quantity determines whether demand is fully observed or censored by sales. Existing approaches based on parametric Thompson sampling (TS) can be brittle under prior mismatch, while offline imputation methods need not transfer to online learning. Motivated by the predictive view of decision making, we combine these ideas by taking oracle actions on learned completions of latent demand. We propose in-context generative posterior sampling (ICGPS), which uses modern generative models that are meta-trained offline and deployed online by in-context autoregressive generation. Theoretically, we show that the Bayesian regret of ICGPS with a learned completion kernel is bounded by the Bayesian regret of a TS benchmark with the ideal completion kernel plus a deployment penalty scaling as $\sqrt{T}$ times the square root of the completion mismatch. This yields a plug-in template for operational problems with known TS regret bounds. For R-NV, we derive sublinear Bayesian regret by reducing censored feedback to bandit convex optimization feedback. We also show that, under reasonable coverage and stability assumptions, the online completion mismatch is controlled by the offline censored predictive mismatch, so offline predictive quality transfers to online performance. Practically, we instantiate ICGPS with ChronosFlow, which combines a frozen time-series transformer backbone with a trainable conditional normalizing-flow head for fast censoring-consistent sampling. In benchmark experiments, ChronosFlow-ICGPS matches correctly specified TS, outperforms myopic and UCB-style baselines, and is robust to prior mismatch and distribution shift. ChronosFlow-ICGPS also performs well for the real-world SuperStore dataset, especially under heavy censoring.